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Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun prediction

Middleweight · UFC 333 (UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev) · 24 Oct 2026
UFC 1-0 · Pro 25-4
VS
UFC 6-3 · Pro 10-3

Prediction

early read
Jacob Malkoun 66%
34%66%
as of 15 Oct 2026, 02:02 UTC

By the numbers

  • Age

    Malkoun is 2 years younger. With an age gap of 2 to 3 years, the younger fighter wins 57% of UFC fights (1,252 of 2,209 fights).

  • Win streaks

    Malkoun comes in on a 3-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 3 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 56% of the time (435 of 773 fights).

Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.

Tale of the tape

The facts, side by side — Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun.

Red corner AbubakarVagaevFight Club Akhmat · Hometown (per Sherdog): Grozny, Chechnya
VSUpcoming
Blue corner JacobMalkoun“Mamba”PMA Super Martial Arts · Born in Sydney, Australia · Fights out of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
MiddleweightPicks published · graded in public after the card
The story
  • Carries 16 points more takedown defence than Malkoun.
  • Comes in on a 3-fight win streak.
  • 9 UFC bouts deep — 8 more than Vagaev.
25-4
Record
10-3
33
Age
−2 yr31
+2″5' 11"
Height
5' 9"
73″
Reach
73″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
1
UFC bouts
+89
0/10% of wins
Finishes
1/617% of wins
Fight Club Akhmat
Gym
PMA Super Martial Arts
Grozny, Chechnyahometown, per Sherdog
From
Sydney, New South Wales, Australiafights out of
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s.
All the vitals, as a table
UFC 1-0UFC recordUFC 6-3
25-4Pro record10-3
—NicknameMamba
5' 11"Height5' 9"
73"Reach73"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
33Age31
170 lbs.Weight185 lbs.
RussiaNationalityAustralia
—Born inSydney, Australia
—Fights out ofSydney, New South Wales, Australia
Grozny, ChechnyaHometown (per Sherdog)—
Fight Club AkhmatCampPMA Super Martial Arts
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

Abubakar VagaevJacob Malkoun
27
Striking
84
80
Defence
71
70
Grappling / TD
64
45 limited sample
Cardio
62
63 limited sample
Chin
70
57
Fight IQ
70
Our read — derived, not official stats. Ranked within weight class.

Strike zones

Strike zones

Where they go — head to head

Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Abubakar Vagaev1 UFC fights · 27 landed

Limited sample
59.3%
HEAD
92.0%
25.9%
BODY
7.1%
14.8%
LEGS
0.9%

Jacob Malkoun9 UFC fights · 424 landed

Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.

Takedowns

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Abubakar Vagaev

4.00takedowns / 15 min
4.00 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
5.39 / 15m
10.00 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
12.83 / 15m
40%
ACCURACY
42%
0.00 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.80 / 15m

Jacob Malkoun

5.39takedowns / 15 min

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.50 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked roster-wide

Stats comparison

Abubakar Vagaev (left) vs Jacob Malkoun (right) — career striking & grappling rates.

Strikes landed / min
1.8
vs
4.23
Striking accuracy
38%
vs
56%
Strikes absorbed / min
2.2
vs
2.33
Striking defence
60%
vs
55%
Takedowns / 15 min
4
vs
5.39
Takedown accuracy
40%
vs
42%
Takedown defence
71%
vs
55%
Sub attempts / 15 min
0
vs
0.8
Career averages from public UFC statistics.

Bios

Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.

Abubakar VagaevFightIQ profileWrestler

5' 11" orthodox wrestler campaigning at Welterweight. 1 UFC win — 1 decision.

Built from Abubakar Vagaev’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →
Jacob MalkounFightIQ profileWrestle-grinder

5' 9" orthodox wrestle-grinder campaigning at Middleweight. 6 UFC wins — 1 KO/TKO, 5 decision.

Built from Jacob Malkoun’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →

Go deeper

Elsewhere on the card

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