Flyweight
- 1Manel KapeOfficial #2 ▲1
- 2Alexandre PantojaOfficial #1 ▼1
- 3Tatsuro TairaOfficial #4 ▲1
- 4Asu AlmabayevOfficial #7 ▲3
- 5Ramazan TemirovprovisionalOfficial #10 ▲5
How ours works, in six lines
- One strength per fighterEvery UFC result is fitted together. The gap between two strengths sets the chance that each one wins.
- We rank on the cautious endStrength minus one unit of uncertainty. A short, perfect record has to show more before it climbs above an established contender.
- Thin evidence is labelledWhere the uncertainty is very wide the entry is marked provisional. The bar under each name shows the range.
- Old fights fadeA fight loses half its weight every three years.
- Earn the rankingA win over a ranked opponent to appear in the top 15; a win over a then-top-10 opponent to sit in the top five.
- The champion stays the championShown at the top of each division, outside our 1 to 15, as the UFC does.
The honest result so far
Backtest, FightIQ vs UFC official rankings
60.7% vs 52.9% on 280 ranked-vs-ranked bouts since 2024; the uncertainty range runs from 0 to +15.7 points, so it is not yet proven.
Each bout is scored with the rankings as they stood beforehand: did the higher-ranked fighter win?
Forward test scoreboard
Forward test starts with the 17 October card
The test was written down before any of its fights. It covers every UFC fight in which both fighters are ranked by FightIQ, by Meta and by the UFC's standard table, using each list as it stood before the card. We will not read the result until 100 fights have been scored.
Lists: FightIQ; Meta UFC Rankings, ufc.com; UFC official rankings.
The divisions
Bantamweight
- 1Merab DvalishviliOfficial #1 =
- 2Sean O'MalleyOfficial #2 =
- 3Song YadongOfficial #3 =
- 4Umar NurmagomedovOfficial #4 =
- 5Mario BautistaOfficial #5 =
Featherweight
- 1Diego LopesOfficial #2 ▲1
- 2Movsar EvloevprovisionalOfficial #1 ▼1
- 3Jean SilvaOfficial #5 ▲2
- 4Aljamain SterlingOfficial #4 =
- 5Lerone MurphyOfficial #3 ▼2
Lightweight
- 1Charles OliveiraOfficial #3 ▲2
- 2Quillan SalkilldprovisionalOfficial #7 ▲5
- 3Ilia TopuriaOfficial #1 ▼2
- 4Arman TsarukyanOfficial #2 ▼2
- 5Max HollowayOfficial #4 ▼1
Welterweight
- 1Carlos PratesOfficial #2 ▲1
- 2Ian Machado GarryOfficial #1 ▼1
- 3Michael MoralesprovisionalOfficial #3 =
- 4Gabriel BonfimOfficial #5 ▲1
- 5Sean BradyOfficial #6 ▲1
Middleweight
- 1Nassourdine ImavovOfficial #3 ▲2
- 2Dricus Du PlessisOfficial #2 =
- 3Khamzat ChimaevOfficial #1 ▼2
- 4Brendan AllenOfficial #4 =
- 5Michael PageOfficial: unranked
Light Heavyweight
- 1Magomed AnkalaevOfficial #1 =
- 2Navajo StirlingprovisionalOfficial #5 ▲3
- 3Jiri ProchazkaOfficial #2 ▼1
- 4Volkan OezdemirOfficial: unranked
- 5Bogdan GuskovOfficial #10 ▲5
Heavyweight
- 1Tom AspinallOfficial #1 =
- 2Josh HokitprovisionalOfficial #4 ▲2
- 3Alexander VolkovOfficial #2 ▼1
- 4Sergei PavlovichOfficial #3 ▼1
- 5Curtis BlaydesOfficial #5 =
Women's Strawweight
- 1Tatiana SuarezOfficial #2 ▲1
- 2Alexia ThainaraprovisionalOfficial #9 ▲7
- 3Fatima KlineprovisionalOfficial #7 ▲4
- 4Virna JandirobaOfficial #3 ▼1
- 5Denise GomesOfficial #4 ▼1
Women's Flyweight
- 1Valentina ShevchenkoOfficial #1 =
- 2Alexa GrassoOfficial #2 =
- 3Erin BlanchfieldOfficial #4 ▲1
- 4Manon FiorotOfficial #3 ▼1
- 5Jasmine JasudaviciusOfficial #6 ▲1
Women's Bantamweight
- 1Ailin PerezOfficial #3 ▲2
- 2Luana SantosOfficial #7 ▲5
- 3Joselyne EdwardsOfficial #2 ▼1
- 4Norma DumontOfficial #5 ▲1
- 5Yana SantosOfficial #6 ▲1
- Our rankings as of
- Results through
- UFC official rankings as of
- Meta UFC Rankings, ufc.com as of
- Who can be ranked
- at least 3 decided UFC bouts, a UFC bout in the last 18 months, and not listed as Retired or Not Fighting on the fighter's UFC.com athlete page