11:11
median time
Featherweight · 3 rounds · UFC 333 (UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev) · 24 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Daniel Santos over Bolaji Oki at 55% confidence — a coin-flip.
That read sits 1.7pp above the sportsbook line's implied 53% on Daniel Santos.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 45% (KO/TKO 38%, submission 17%, decision 45%) — a lean rather than a call.
The model gives it a 45% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 11:11.
Live on Polymarket, Daniel Santos is priced around 54%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 20 Oct 2026, 05:34 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: TOSS-UP picks are 42-43 (49.4%, n=85) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Daniel Santos's implied chance drifted up from 50% to 54% (+3.0pp) over this window.
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolaji Oki — sportsbook consensus | 42.6% | 42.6% | 47.0% | 47.0% | +4.4pp |
| Daniel Santos — sportsbook consensus | 57.4% | 53.0% | 57.4% | 53.0% | −4.4pp |
| Bolaji Oki — Polymarket | 49.5% | 45.5% | 49.5% | 46.5% | −3.0pp |
| Daniel Santos — Polymarket | 50.5% | 50.5% | 54.5% | 53.5% | +3.0pp |
The facts, side by side — Bolaji Oki vs Daniel Santos.
| UFC 2-3 | UFC record | UFC 4-2 |
| 10-4 | Pro record | 14-3 |
| The Zulu Warrior | Nickname | Willycat |
| 5' 10" | Height | 5' 7" |
| 73" | Reach | 67" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 30 | Age | 31 |
| 155 lbs. | Weight | 145 lbs. |
| Belgium | Nationality | Brazil |
| — | Born in | Uberlândia, Minas Gerais, Brazil |
| — | Fights out of | São Paulo, Brazil |
| Brussels | Hometown (per Sherdog) | — |
| — | Camp | Chute Boxe Diego Lima |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Bolaji Oki5 UFC fights · 346 landed
Daniel Santos6 UFC fights · 357 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Bolaji Oki
Daniel Santos
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.56 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Bolaji Oki (left) vs Daniel Santos (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 10" orthodox volume striker campaigning at Lightweight. 2 UFC wins — 2 decision.
5' 7" orthodox grappling-led all-rounder campaigning at Featherweight. 4 UFC wins — 2 KO/TKO, 2 decision.