12:36
median time
Women's Strawweight · 3 rounds · UFC 333 (UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev) · 24 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Iasmin Lucindo over Nicolle Caliari at 84% confidence — a lock.
That read sits 8.5pp above the sportsbook line's implied 76% on Iasmin Lucindo.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 60% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 26%, decision 60%) — a clear separation.
The model gives it a 60% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 12:36.
Live on Polymarket, Iasmin Lucindo is priced around 76%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 20 Oct 2026, 01:04 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: LOCK picks are 29-9 (76.3%, n=38) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
Lucindo’s first UFC fight in 14 months. A fighter coming back after 1 to 2 years away, against an opponent active within the year, wins 40% of the time (377 of 930 fights).
Lucindo is 5 years younger. With an age gap of 4 to 5 years, the younger fighter wins 56% of UFC fights (929 of 1,653 fights).
History leans Caliari on 1 of these; our model still picks Lucindo.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Since the open, the market has drifted toward our pick: Iasmin Lucindo's implied chance moved up from 50% to 76% (+26.5pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo — sportsbook consensus | 76.0% | 75.6% | 76.0% | 75.6% | −0.4pp |
| Nicolle Caliari — sportsbook consensus | 24.0% | 24.0% | 24.4% | 24.4% | +0.4pp |
| Iasmin Lucindo — Polymarket | 50.0% | 50.0% | 76.5% | 76.5% | +26.5pp |
| Nicolle Caliari — Polymarket | 50.0% | 23.5% | 50.0% | 23.5% | −26.5pp |
The facts, side by side — Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari.
| UFC 5-2 | UFC record | UFC 1-2 |
| 18-6 | Pro record | 9-4 |
| 5' 3" | Height | 5' 3" |
| 66" | Reach | 62" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 24 | Age | 29 |
| 115 lbs. | Weight | 115 lbs. |
| Brazil | Nationality | Brazil |
| Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil | Born in | — |
| Feira de Santana, Brazil | Fights out of | — |
| — | Hometown (per Sherdog) | Curitiba, Parana |
| Fight House | Camp | Thai Brasil Floripa |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Iasmin Lucindo7 UFC fights · 318 landed
Nicolle Caliari3 UFC fights · 119 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Iasmin Lucindo
Nicolle Caliari
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.56 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Iasmin Lucindo (left) vs Nicolle Caliari (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 3" orthodox decision fighter campaigning at Women's Strawweight. 5 UFC wins — 1 submission, 4 decision.
5' 3" orthodox grappling-led all-rounder campaigning at Women's Flyweight. 1 UFC win — 1 submission.