7:41
median time
Lightweight · 3 rounds · UFC 333 (UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev) · 24 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Kody Steele over Noah Gugnon at 54% confidence — a coin-flip.
That read sits 4.4pp below the sportsbook line's implied 59% on Kody Steele.
Most likely outcome: submission at 38% (KO/TKO 29%, submission 38%, decision 33%) — but all three outcomes stay live.
The model gives it a 33% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 7:41.
Live on Polymarket, Kody Steele is priced around 57%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 20 Oct 2026, 11:04 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: TOSS-UP picks are 42-43 (49.4%, n=85) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
Gugnon is 5 years younger. With an age gap of 4 to 5 years, the younger fighter wins 56% of UFC fights (929 of 1,653 fights).
History leans Gugnon on 1 of these; our model still picks Steele.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Kody Steele's implied chance drifted up from 52% to 57% (+5.5pp) over this window.
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kody Steele — sportsbook consensus | 60.5% | 58.5% | 60.5% | 58.7% | −1.8pp |
| Noah Gugnon — sportsbook consensus | 39.5% | 39.5% | 41.5% | 41.3% | +1.8pp |
| Kody Steele — Polymarket | 52.0% | 52.0% | 59.0% | 57.5% | +5.5pp |
| Noah Gugnon — Polymarket | 48.0% | 41.0% | 48.0% | 42.5% | −5.5pp |
The facts, side by side — Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon.
| UFC 1-1 | UFC record | UFC 1-0 |
| 8-1 | Pro record | 10-2 |
| 5' 9" | Height | 5' 11" |
| 71" | Reach | 71" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 31 | Age | 26 |
| 155 lbs. | Weight | 155 lbs. |
| United States | Nationality | France |
| Austin, Texas | Hometown (per Sherdog) | Sarrebourg |
| Syndicate MMA | Camp | Bulgarian Top Team |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Kody Steele2 UFC fights · 60 landed
Limited sampleNoah Gugnon1 UFC fights · 5 landed
Limited sampleSignificant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Kody Steele
Noah Gugnon
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.19 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Kody Steele (left) vs Noah Gugnon (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 9" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Lightweight. 1 UFC win — 1 submission.
5' 11" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Lightweight. 1 UFC win — 1 submission.