Alexa Grasso vs Rose Namajunas — fantasy matchup

If they fought

A statistical read on a fight that does not exist — no market, no booking, nothing to grade it against.

Alexa Grasso 54% Rose Namajunas 46%

Run as an unbooked fight, the numbers favour Alexa Grasso at 54% — close enough to be a coin toss — there is no meaningful separation between them.

Our two reads agree, and closely. Both land on Alexa Grasso — 54% on the first, 52% on the second, 2 points apart.

The same read puts the chance it goes the full distance at 67%.

Hypothetical run at Women's Flyweight; Rose Namajunas fought mainly at Women's Strawweight.

KO/TKO

15%

Submission

12%

Decision

74%

These figures come from the same statistical reads we run on real cards, with the betting market removed — there is no market on a fight nobody has booked. Nothing here is timestamped against a result, nothing here is graded, and none of it counts towards our public record. It is a thought experiment with real numbers behind it.

Tale of the tape

Alexa Grasso vs Rose Namajunas — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

UFC 10-5 (1 draw/NC)	UFC record	UFC 12-7
18-5-1	Pro record	15-8
—	Nickname	Thug
5' 5"	Height	5' 5"
66"▲	Reach	65"
Orthodox	Stance	Orthodox
33	Age	34
125 lbs.	Weight	125 lbs.
Mexico	Nationality	United States
Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico	Born in	Milwaukee, Wisconsin, United States
Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico	Fights out of	Denver, Colorado, United States
Lobo Gym MMA	Camp	Genesis Training Academy

Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

Stat-by-stat

Alexa Grasso (left) vs Rose Namajunas (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min

4.19

3.5

Striking accuracy

41%

Strikes absorbed / min

3.78

3.38

Striking defence

59%

63%

Takedowns / 15 min

0.38

1.47

Takedown accuracy

35%

48%

Takedown defence

54%

62%

Sub attempts / 15 min

0.6

0.3

Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Fights that have happened between them

None.

Alexa Grasso and Rose Namajunas have never met in the UFC.

Every matchup on this page is a pairing that has never happened. That is how they are chosen: if these two had already met in the Octagon, there would be a real result to read instead, and this page would not exist.

The real fighters

Everything above is hypothetical. These are not.

Change either fighter: Alexa Grasso vs Rose Namajunas in Build your own → Alexa Grasso — record, tape and career → Rose Namajunas — record, tape and career → This week's real card →

More Women's Flyweight fantasy matchups

Natalia Silva vs Valentina Shevchenko →Natalia Silva vs Manon Fiorot →Valentina Shevchenko vs Erin Blanchfield →Valentina Shevchenko vs Rose Namajunas →Alexa Grasso vs Erin Blanchfield →

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