5:19
median time
FightIQ's read: Javad Mahjoub over Joel Faglier at 53% confidence — a lean.
That read sits 0.0pp above the sportsbook line's implied 53% on Javad Mahjoub.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 46% (KO/TKO 46%, submission 22%, decision 32%) — a lean rather than a call.
The model gives it a 32% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 5:19.
Live on Polymarket, Javad Mahjoub is priced around 50%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 13 Oct 2026, 19:06 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
UFC debut for both.
Faglier is 9 years younger. With an age gap of 8 to 9 years, the younger fighter wins 65% of UFC fights (413 of 634 fights).
History leans Faglier on 1 of these; our model still picks Mahjoub.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Since the open, the market has drifted away from our pick: Javad Mahjoub's implied chance moved down from 51% to 50% (−0.5pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javad Mahjoub — sportsbook consensus | 52.4% | 51.4% | 52.4% | 51.4% | −1.1pp |
| Joel Faglier — sportsbook consensus | 47.6% | 47.6% | 48.6% | 48.6% | +1.1pp |
| Javad Mahjoub — Polymarket | 51.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | 50.5% | −0.5pp |
| Joel Faglier — Polymarket | 49.0% | 48.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | +0.5pp |
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 53% | 46% |
The facts, side by side — Javad Mahjoub vs Joel Faglier.
| 5-0 | Pro record | 6-0 |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 35 | Age | 25 |
| Iran | Nationality | United States |
| Chenaran, Iran | Born in | — |
| Montreal, Quebec, Canada | Fights out of | — |
| — | Hometown (per Sherdog) | Augusta, Georgia |
| Alavanca Calgary | Camp | Faglier's Mixed Martial Arts |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Javad Mahjoub (left) vs Joel Faglier (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
-- orthodox all-rounder.
-- orthodox all-rounder.