6:05
median time
Middleweight · 3 rounds · UFC Edmonton (UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott) · 17 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Nick Galanti over Julien Leblanc at 81% confidence — a lean.
That read sits 0.0pp above the sportsbook line's implied 81% on Nick Galanti.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 47% (KO/TKO 47%, submission 28%, decision 26%) — a lean rather than a call.
The model gives it a 26% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 6:05.
Live on Polymarket, Nick Galanti is priced around 86%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 13 Oct 2026, 19:06 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Galanti’s UFC debut, against a fighter with 1 UFC fight. Debutants facing an opponent with 1 to 3 UFC fights win 42% of the time (413 of 978 fights).
Galanti is 6 years younger. With an age gap of 6 to 7 years, the younger fighter wins 60% of UFC fights (637 of 1,058 fights).
History leans Leblanc on 1 of these; our model still picks Galanti.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Since the open, the market has drifted toward our pick: Nick Galanti's implied chance moved up from 50% to 86% (+35.5pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julien Leblanc — sportsbook consensus | 18.1% | 18.1% | 18.1% | 18.1% | −0.0pp |
| Nick Galanti — sportsbook consensus | 81.9% | 81.9% | 81.9% | 81.9% | −0.0pp |
| Julien Leblanc — Polymarket | 50.0% | 14.0% | 50.0% | 14.5% | −35.5pp |
| Nick Galanti — Polymarket | 50.0% | 50.0% | 86.0% | 85.5% | +35.5pp |
The facts, side by side — Julien Leblanc vs Nick Galanti.
| UFC 0-1 | UFC record | — |
| 10-3 | Pro record | 8-1 |
| 6' 2" | Height | 6' 1" |
| 74" | Reach | 75" |
| Southpaw | Stance | Southpaw |
| 34 | Age | 28 |
| 185 lbs. | Weight | 185 lbs. |
| Canada | Nationality | — |
| Gatineau, Quebec | Hometown (per Sherdog) | — |
| Patenaude Martial Arts | Camp | — |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Where the strikes go — and where they land on him. Career UFC totals, straight off the tape.
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Julien Leblanc (left) vs Nick Galanti (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6' 2" southpaw all-rounder campaigning at Middleweight.
6' 1" southpaw volume boxer campaigning at Middleweight.