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Carlos Prates vs Michael Morales prediction
Welterweight Interim Title · Van vs Kape · 30 Jan 2027
First UFC title fight for both.
Both fighters finish: at least two thirds of their UFC wins ended inside the distance. When two finishers meet, 65% of UFC fights end inside the distance (358 of 554 fights). Across every UFC fight it is 53%.
Morales comes in on a 7-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 6 or more against an opponent on a shorter one wins 64% of the time (206 of 322 fights).
Morales’s first UFC fight in 14 months. A fighter coming back after 1 to 2 years away, against an opponent active within the year, wins 40% of the time (379 of 935 fights).
Morales is 5 years younger. With an age gap of 4 to 5 years, the younger fighter wins 56% of UFC fights (931 of 1,658 fights).
History leans Prates on 1 of these; our early read still favours Morales.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The facts, side by side — Carlos Prates vs Michael Morales.
| UFC 7-1 | UFC record | UFC 7-0 |
| 24-7 | Pro record | 19-0 |
| The Nightmare | Nickname | — |
| 6' 1" | Height | 6' 0" |
| 78" | Reach | 79" |
| Switch | Stance | Orthodox |
| 33 | Age | 27 |
| 170 lbs. | Weight | 170 lbs. |
| Brazil | Nationality | Ecuador |
| Taubaté, São Paulo, Brazil | Born in | Pasaje, El Oro, Ecuador |
| Taubaté, Brazil | Fights out of | Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico |
| — | Camp | Entram Gym |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Carlos Prates8 UFC fights · 339 landed
Michael Morales7 UFC fights · 356 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Carlos Prates
Michael Morales
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.59 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Carlos Prates (left) vs Michael Morales (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6' 1" switch power striker campaigning at Welterweight. 7 UFC wins — 7 KO/TKO.
6' 0" orthodox power striker campaigning at Welterweight. 7 UFC wins — 5 KO/TKO, 2 decision.