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FightIQ · UFC stats · Context facts · Do UFC fighters win more often in their home state?

Do UFC fighters win more often in their home state?

At US events outside Nevada, the fighter based in the event’s state won 48% of 264 bouts, and the fighter based in the event’s city 44% of 57. At Nevada events, every Nevada venue together, the figures are 55% (47 bouts) and 55% (44).

US events only: how often the fighter based in the event’s state or city wins.
Source: fighter locality from Sherdog and event locations · data as of 18 October 2026

Correlation is not causation. A fighter based near the venue may also be matched differently, travel less or fight in front of their own gym, and none of that is separated out here.

Descriptive only. This page describes past UFC results; it is not a forecast.

The overall picture

LevelOutside NevadaBoutsNevada, every eventBouts
Home state48%26455%47
Home city44%5755%44

By event state: fighter based in the state

win rate · the thin line marks an even split · small sample

CA2006 to 2026
53%
58 bouts
NV (every Nevada event)2002 to 2025
55%
47 bouts
TX2007 to 2026
52%
33 bouts
NYsmall sample2016 to 2025
54%
28 bouts
FLsmall sample2006 to 2024
40%
20 bouts
NJsmall sample2001 to 2026
32%
19 bouts
COsmall sample1994 to 2018
64%
11 bouts
MAsmall sample2010 to 2019
60%
10 bouts
AZsmall sample2014 to 2019
22%
9 bouts
OHsmall sample2007 to 2022
33%
9 bouts
MOsmall sample2017 to 2025
50%
8 bouts
ILsmall sample2012 to 2019
29%
7 bouts
WAsmall sample2012 to 2026
33%
6 bouts
WIsmall sample2013 to 2018
60%
5 bouts
IAsmall sample1999 to 2000
75%
4 bouts
LAsmall sample1999 to 2025
50%
4 bouts
NEsmall sample2008 to 2018
25%
4 bouts
INsmall sample2010
67%
3 bouts
NCsmall sample1995 to 2020
0%
3 bouts
MNsmall sample2012 to 2019
50%
2 bouts
MSsmall sample1997
0%
2 bouts
NMsmall sample2014 to 2020
50%
2 bouts
OKsmall sample1994 to 2017
0%
2 bouts
ORsmall sample2009
0%
2 bouts
PAsmall sample2011 to 2026
100%
2 bouts
SDsmall sample2016
0%
2 bouts
TNsmall sample2015 to 2017
100%
2 bouts
UTsmall sample2016 to 2024
100%
2 bouts
ALsmall sample1997
0%
1 bout
GAsmall sample2025
100%
1 bout
MEsmall sample2014
100%
1 bout
MIsmall sample1996
100%
1 bout
VAsmall sample2010
100%
1 bout

By event state: fighter based in the city

NV (every Nevada event)2002 to 2025
55%
44 bouts
CAsmall sample2011 to 2019
60%
10 bouts
AZsmall sample2014 to 2019
29%
7 bouts
ILsmall sample2013 to 2019
25%
4 bouts
NYsmall sample2017 to 2021
50%
4 bouts
TXsmall sample2015 to 2026
75%
4 bouts
WIsmall sample2013 to 2018
50%
4 bouts
COsmall sample1994
100%
3 bouts
NEsmall sample2008 to 2012
33%
3 bouts
FLsmall sample2018 to 2024
0%
2 bouts
INsmall sample2010
100%
2 bouts
MAsmall sample2015 to 2016
50%
2 bouts
MOsmall sample2024 to 2025
50%
2 bouts
OHsmall sample2007
0%
2 bouts
ORsmall sample2009
0%
2 bouts
SDsmall sample2016
0%
2 bouts
LAsmall sample1999
0%
1 bout
MIsmall sample1996
0%
1 bout
NCsmall sample2018
0%
1 bout
NMsmall sample2014
100%
1 bout

The small-sample flag on these rows comes from the source data.

What counts. US events only, in bouts where both fighters are based in the US and exactly one lists the event’s state (or, in the city table, the event’s city) as their locality on Sherdog. Locality is not birthplace. Sherdog’s locality is where a fighter lives or trains, not where they were born or a hometown in the strict sense. Nevada apart. Nevada events (Las Vegas, the UFC Apex and any other Nevada venue) are reported separately from every other state. Units. Every figure on this page is a win rate: the share of bouts with one home fighter that the home-state or home-city fighter won. Home means Sherdog locality (the state or city where the fighter lives or trains), US-based fighters only. Nevada means every Nevada event, the UFC Apex and the other Las Vegas and Nevada venues together. These figures are not comparable with the state table on the home-town finishes page, which is a finish rate built on UFCStats hometown states, a different set of fighters.
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