7:47
median time
Lightweight · 3 rounds · UFC Edmonton (UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott) · 17 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Cristian Perez over Kyle Nelson at 71% confidence — a lean.
That read sits 0.0pp above the sportsbook line's implied 71% on Cristian Perez.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 46% (KO/TKO 46%, submission 25%, decision 29%) — a lean rather than a call.
The model gives it a 29% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 7:47.
Live on Polymarket, Cristian Perez is priced around 76%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Perez’s UFC debut, against a fighter with 12 UFC fights. Debutants facing an opponent with 10 or more UFC fights win 42% of the time (67 of 158 fights).
Perez is 8 years younger. With an age gap of 8 to 9 years, the younger fighter wins 65% of UFC fights (413 of 634 fights).
History leans Nelson on 1 of these; our model still picks Perez.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
The price on Cristian Perez has barely moved across this window — 76% at the open, 76% now (a 0.0pp shift).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Perez — sportsbook consensus | 73.5% | 73.5% | 75.7% | 75.7% | +2.2pp |
| Kyle Nelson — sportsbook consensus | 26.5% | 24.3% | 26.5% | 24.3% | −2.2pp |
| Cristian Perez — Polymarket | 76.0% | 76.0% | 76.0% | 76.0% | −0.0pp |
| Kyle Nelson — Polymarket | 24.0% | 24.0% | 24.0% | 24.0% | −0.0pp |
The facts, side by side — Cristian Perez vs Kyle Nelson.
| — | UFC record | UFC 5-6 (1 draw/NC) |
| 15-2 | Pro record | 17-7-1 |
| — | Nickname | The Monster |
| 5' 9" | Height | 5' 11" |
| 72" | Reach | 71" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Switch |
| 27 | Age | 35 |
| 155 lbs. | Weight | 155 lbs. |
| Mexico | Nationality | Canada |
| — | Born in | Huntsville, Ontario, Canada |
| — | Fights out of | Stoney Creek, Ontario, Canada |
| Combate Libre Academy | Camp | House of Champions MMA |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Where the strikes go — and where they land on him. Career UFC totals, straight off the tape.
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Cristian Perez
Kyle Nelson
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.19 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Cristian Perez (left) vs Kyle Nelson (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 9" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Lightweight.
5' 11" switch decision fighter campaigning at Lightweight. 5 UFC wins — 2 KO/TKO, 3 decision.