Lightweight · 3 rounds · UFC 334 (UFC 334: Gane vs Hokit) · 14 Nov 2026
No model read. FightIQ publishes no prediction for this bout. The reason and the tale of the tape are below.
No model read. One of the inputs our method requires was not available for this bout, so we publish no prediction rather than one built on less.
We publish nothing for this bout — no winner, no method read, no round distribution. The reason is below, not a number.
Published 6 Nov 2026, 04:06 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Sanches’s UFC debut, against a fighter with 5 UFC fights. Debutants facing an opponent with 4 to 9 UFC fights win 41% of the time (216 of 528 fights).
Sanches is 5 years younger. With an age gap of 4 to 5 years, the younger fighter wins 56% of UFC fights (931 of 1,658 fights).
Elder comes in on a 3-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 3 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 56% of the time (436 of 777 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model.
The price on Evan Elder has barely moved across this window — 54% at the open, 54% now (a 0.0pp shift). We published no prediction for this bout, so there is no pick marker on this chart — the line above is the market's, not ours.
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Elder — sportsbook consensus | 52.2% | 52.2% | 52.2% | 52.2% | −0.0pp |
| Samuel Sanches — sportsbook consensus | 47.8% | 47.8% | 47.8% | 47.8% | −0.0pp |
| Evan Elder — Polymarket | 53.5% | 53.5% | 53.5% | 53.5% | −0.0pp |
| Samuel Sanches — Polymarket | 46.5% | 46.5% | 46.5% | 46.5% | −0.0pp |
The facts, side by side — Evan Elder vs Samuel Sanches.
| UFC 3-2 | UFC record | — |
| 10-2 | Pro record | 11-1 |
| The Phenom | Nickname | — |
| 5' 10" | Height | 5' 10" |
| 72" | Reach | 74" |
| Switch | Stance | Orthodox |
| 29 | Age | 23 |
| 155 lbs. | Weight | 155 lbs. |
| United States | Nationality | Brazil |
| Stockton, California | Hometown (per Sherdog) | Salvador, Bahia |
| Syndicate MMA | Camp | Galpao da Luta |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Where the strikes go — and where they land on him. Career UFC totals, straight off the tape.
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Evan Elder
Samuel Sanches
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.19 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Evan Elder (left) vs Samuel Sanches (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 10" switch volume boxer campaigning at Lightweight. 3 UFC wins — 1 submission, 2 decision.
5' 10" orthodox volume boxer campaigning at Lightweight.