10:43
median time
Lightweight · 3 rounds · UFC 334 (UFC 334: Gane vs Hokit) · 14 Nov 2026
FightIQ's read: Melquizael Costa over Jared Gordon at 85% confidence — a lock.
That read sits 8.5pp above the sportsbook line's implied 77% on Melquizael Costa.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 42% (KO/TKO 41%, submission 17%, decision 42%) — but all three outcomes stay live.
The model gives it a 42% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 10:43.
Live on Polymarket, Melquizael Costa is priced around 80%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 6 Nov 2026, 04:06 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: LOCK picks are 33-9 (78.6%, n=42) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
Costa is 8 years younger. With an age gap of 8 to 9 years, the younger fighter wins 65% of UFC fights (416 of 637 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where we first published this pick.
The price on Melquizael Costa has barely moved across this window — 81% at the open, 81% now (a 0.0pp shift).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Gordon — sportsbook consensus | 23.4% | 23.4% | 23.4% | 23.4% | −0.0pp |
| Melquizael Costa — sportsbook consensus | 76.6% | 76.6% | 76.6% | 76.6% | −0.0pp |
| Jared Gordon — Polymarket | 19.5% | 19.5% | 19.5% | 19.5% | −0.0pp |
| Melquizael Costa — Polymarket | 80.5% | 80.5% | 80.5% | 80.5% | −0.0pp |
The facts, side by side — Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa.
| UFC 9-8 (1 draw/NC) | UFC record | UFC 7-3 |
| 21-9 | Pro record | 26-8 |
| Flash | Nickname | Melk Cauthy |
| 5' 9" | Height | 5' 10" |
| 68" | Reach | 71" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Southpaw |
| 38 | Age | 30 |
| 155 lbs. | Weight | 155 lbs. |
| United States | Nationality | Brazil |
| Queens, New York, United States | Born in | Porto de Moz, Pará, Brazil |
| Boynton Beach, Florida, United States | Fights out of | Bauru, São Paulo, Brazil |
| Kill Cliff FC | Camp | Chute Boxe |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Jared Gordon18 UFC fights · 1,050 landed
Melquizael Costa10 UFC fights · 462 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Jared Gordon
Melquizael Costa
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.59 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Jared Gordon (left) vs Melquizael Costa (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 9" orthodox volume striker campaigning at Lightweight. 9 UFC wins — 3 KO/TKO, 6 decision.
5' 10" southpaw all-rounder campaigning at Featherweight. 7 UFC wins — 2 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 3 decision.