7:46
median time
Heavyweight · 3 rounds · Cortes Acosta vs Walker (UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady) · 7 Nov 2026
FightIQ's read: Thomas Petersen over Gabriel Lorenco at 60% confidence — a lean.
That read sits 0.0pp above the sportsbook line's implied 60% on Thomas Petersen.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 44% (KO/TKO 44%, submission 24%, decision 32%) — but all three outcomes stay live.
The model gives it a 32% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 7:46.
Live on Polymarket, Thomas Petersen is priced around 57%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 31 Oct 2026, 13:48 UTC, updated 2 Nov 2026, 04:04 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Lorenco’s UFC debut, against a fighter with 7 UFC fights. Debutants facing an opponent with 4 to 9 UFC fights win 41% of the time (216 of 528 fights).
Lorenco is 4 years younger. With an age gap of 4 to 5 years, the younger fighter wins 56% of UFC fights (931 of 1,658 fights).
History leans Lorenco on 1 of these; our model still picks Petersen.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where we first published this pick.
Since the open, the market has drifted toward our pick: Thomas Petersen's implied chance moved up from 50% to 57% (+7pp). We first published this pick before this window opened — so the gold marker sits at the first snapshot we hold, not at a price we were reacting to.
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Lorenco — sportsbook consensus | 40.1% | 40.1% | 40.2% | 40.2% | +0.1pp |
| Thomas Petersen — sportsbook consensus | 59.9% | 59.8% | 59.9% | 59.8% | −0.1pp |
| Gabriel Lorenco — Polymarket | 50.0% | 39.5% | 50.0% | 42.5% | −7.5pp |
| Thomas Petersen — Polymarket | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.5% | 57.5% | +7.5pp |
The facts, side by side — Gabriel Lorenco vs Thomas Petersen.
| — | UFC record | UFC 3-4 |
| 8-1 | Pro record | 11-5 |
| — | Nickname | The Train |
| 6' 2" | Height | 6' 1" |
| 76" | Reach | 74" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Southpaw |
| 27 | Age | 31 |
| 229 lbs. | Weight | 250 lbs. |
| — | Nationality | United States |
| — | Hometown (per Sherdog) | Farmington, Minnesota |
| — | Camp | Spartan MMA |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Where the strikes go — and where they land on him. Career UFC totals, straight off the tape.
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Gabriel Lorenco
Thomas Petersen
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.29 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Gabriel Lorenco (left) vs Thomas Petersen (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6' 2" orthodox volume boxer campaigning at Heavyweight.
6' 1" southpaw grappling-led all-rounder campaigning at Heavyweight. 3 UFC wins — 3 decision.