10:16
median time
Middleweight · 3 rounds · Cortes Acosta vs Walker (UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady) · 7 Nov 2026
FightIQ's read: Mantas Kondratavicius over Andre Petroski at 81% confidence — a lock.
That read sits 9.0pp above the sportsbook line's implied 72% on Mantas Kondratavicius.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 43% (KO/TKO 43%, submission 15%, decision 43%) — but all three outcomes stay live.
The model gives it a 43% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 10:16.
Live on Polymarket, Mantas Kondratavicius is priced around 72%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 1 Nov 2026, 11:07 UTC, updated 2 Nov 2026, 04:04 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: LOCK picks are 33-9 (78.6%, n=42) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
Kondratavicius is 8 years younger. With an age gap of 8 to 9 years, the younger fighter wins 65% of UFC fights (416 of 637 fights).
Petroski comes in on 3 straight UFC losses; Kondratavicius comes in off a win. A fighter in that spot wins 40% of the time (46 of 114 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where we first published this pick.
Since the open, the market has drifted toward our pick: Mantas Kondratavicius's implied chance moved up from 57% to 72% (+15pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Petroski — sportsbook consensus | 29.7% | 27.8% | 29.7% | 27.8% | −1.8pp |
| Mantas Kondratavicius — sportsbook consensus | 70.3% | 70.3% | 72.2% | 72.2% | +1.8pp |
| Andre Petroski — Polymarket | 43.0% | 26.0% | 43.0% | 28.5% | −14.5pp |
| Mantas Kondratavicius — Polymarket | 57.0% | 57.0% | 74.0% | 71.5% | +14.5pp |
The facts, side by side — Andre Petroski vs Mantas Kondratavicius.
| UFC 8-5 | UFC record | UFC 1-0 |
| 13-6 | Pro record | 9-1 |
| 6' 0" | Height | 6' 2" |
| 73" | Reach | 75" |
| Switch | Stance | Orthodox |
| 35 | Age | 27 |
| 185 lbs. | Weight | 185 lbs. |
| United States | Nationality | Lithuania |
| Springfield, Pennsylvania, United States | Born in | — |
| — | Hometown (per Sherdog) | Kaunas |
| Renzo Gracie Philly | Camp | Fighter House |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Andre Petroski13 UFC fights · 370 landed
Mantas Kondratavicius1 UFC fights · 75 landed
Limited sampleSignificant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Andre Petroski
Mantas Kondratavicius
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (7.00 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Andre Petroski (left) vs Mantas Kondratavicius (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6' 0" switch grappling-led all-rounder campaigning at Middleweight. 8 UFC wins — 1 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 5 decision.
6' 2" orthodox grappling-led all-rounder campaigning at Middleweight. 1 UFC win — 1 decision.