9:57
median time
Flyweight · 3 rounds · Cortes Acosta vs Walker (UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady) · 7 Nov 2026
FightIQ's read: Marcos Degli over Mitch Raposo at 67% confidence — a lean.
That read sits 0.0pp above the sportsbook line's implied 67% on Marcos Degli.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 56% (KO/TKO 22%, submission 22%, decision 56%) — a clear separation.
The model gives it a 56% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 9:57.
Live on Polymarket, Marcos Degli is priced around 66%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 31 Oct 2026, 13:48 UTC, updated 2 Nov 2026, 04:04 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Degli’s UFC debut, against a fighter with 4 UFC fights. Debutants facing an opponent with 4 to 9 UFC fights win 41% of the time (216 of 528 fights).
History leans Raposo on 1 of these; our model still picks Degli.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where we first published this pick.
Since the open, the market has drifted toward our pick: Marcos Degli's implied chance moved up from 63% to 67% (+4pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Degli — sportsbook consensus | 68.5% | 67.0% | 68.5% | 67.0% | −1.6pp |
| Mitch Raposo — sportsbook consensus | 31.5% | 31.5% | 33.0% | 33.0% | +1.6pp |
| Marcos Degli — Polymarket | 62.5% | 62.0% | 69.5% | 66.5% | +4.0pp |
| Mitch Raposo — Polymarket | 37.5% | 30.5% | 38.0% | 33.5% | −4.0pp |
The facts, side by side — Marcos Degli vs Mitch Raposo.
| — | UFC record | UFC 2-2 |
| 15-3 | Pro record | 11-3 |
| 5' 6" | Height | 5' 5" |
| 67" | Reach | 64" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Switch |
| 26 | Age | 28 |
| 125 lbs. | Weight | 125 lbs. |
| Brazil | Nationality | United States |
| Taubate, Sao Paulo | Hometown (per Sherdog) | Fall River, Massachusetts |
| Vale Top Team | Camp | Regiment Training Center |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Where the strikes go — and where they land on him. Career UFC totals, straight off the tape.
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Marcos Degli
Mitch Raposo
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.00 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Marcos Degli (left) vs Mitch Raposo (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 6" orthodox wrestler campaigning at Flyweight.
5' 5" switch all-rounder campaigning at Flyweight. 2 UFC wins — 2 decision.