11:45
median time
Heavyweight · 5 rounds · Cortes Acosta vs Walker (UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady) · 7 Nov 2026
FightIQ's read: Waldo Cortes Acosta over Johnny Walker at 68% confidence — a lean.
That read sits 3.3pp above the sportsbook line's implied 64% on Waldo Cortes Acosta.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 63% (KO/TKO 63%, submission 12%, decision 25%) — a clear separation.
The model gives it a 25% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 11:45.
Live on Polymarket, Waldo Cortes Acosta is priced around 64%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 31 Oct 2026, 13:48 UTC, updated 2 Nov 2026, 04:04 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: MED picks are 96-29 (76.8%, n=125) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
Acosta’s first five-round fight; Walker has 4 five-rounders behind them. A fighter in a first five-rounder against a more experienced opponent wins 40% of the time (121 of 299 fights).
Acosta comes in on 2 straight UFC losses; Walker comes in off a win. A fighter in that spot wins 44% of the time (118 of 270 fights).
History leans Walker on 2 of these; our model still picks Acosta.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where we first published this pick.
Since the open, the market has drifted toward our pick: Waldo Cortes Acosta's implied chance moved up from 50% to 64% (+14pp). We first published this pick before this window opened — so the gold marker sits at the first snapshot we hold, not at a price we were reacting to.
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldo Cortes Acosta — sportsbook consensus | 63.7% | 63.4% | 64.3% | 64.3% | +0.6pp |
| Johnny Walker — sportsbook consensus | 36.3% | 35.7% | 36.6% | 35.7% | −0.6pp |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta — Polymarket | 50.0% | 48.0% | 64.0% | 64.0% | +14.0pp |
| Johnny Walker — Polymarket | 50.0% | 36.0% | 52.0% | 36.0% | −14.0pp |
The facts, side by side — Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Johnny Walker.
| UFC 10-4 | UFC record | UFC 9-7 (1 draw/NC) |
| 17-4 | Pro record | 23-10 |
| Salsa Boy | Nickname | — |
| 6' 4" | Height | 6' 6" |
| 78" | Reach | 82" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 35 | Age | 34 |
| 260 lbs. | Weight | 205 lbs. |
| Dominican Republic | Nationality | Brazil |
| Fundación, Barahona Province, Dominican Republic | Born in | Belford Roxo, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil |
| Phoenix, Arizona, United States | Fights out of | Las Vegas, Nevada, United States |
| Ultimate Kombat Fitness | Camp | Xtreme Couture |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Waldo Cortes Acosta14 UFC fights · 787 landed
Johnny Walker17 UFC fights · 424 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Johnny Walker
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.59 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Waldo Cortes Acosta (left) vs Johnny Walker (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6' 4" orthodox knockout puncher campaigning at Heavyweight. 10 UFC wins — 5 KO/TKO, 5 decision.
6' 6" orthodox power striker campaigning at Light Heavyweight. 9 UFC wins — 7 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 1 decision.