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Austin Bashi vs Carlos Calderon prediction

Featherweight · 3 rounds · Cortes Acosta vs Walker (UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady) · 7 Nov 2026
Austin Bashi
UFC 1-2 · Pro 14-2
VS
Carlos Calderon
Pro 6-3
FightIQ’s read

FightIQ's read: Austin Bashi over Carlos Calderon at 79% confidence — a lean.

That read sits 0.0pp above the sportsbook line's implied 78% on Austin Bashi.

Most likely outcome: a decision at 44% (KO/TKO 27%, submission 29%, decision 44%) — but all three outcomes stay live.

The model gives it a 44% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 8:48.

Assembled from the model's own outputs — not written free-hand. If a number isn't in the model, it isn't in this summary.

Prediction

One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.

We predict Austin Bashi — 79% confident
Austin Bashi 79%Carlos Calderon 21%
How it ends (method)
KO / TKO27%
Submission29%
Decision44%
How long it lasts (rounds)
Reaches R264%
Reaches R349%
Goes the distance44%
8:48
median time
+0.0pp
vs sportsbook line

Published 5 Nov 2026, 07:04 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.

By the numbers

Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.

Odds

The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.

Sportsbook line
Austin Bashi78% · -480
Carlos Calderon22% · +340
bar = implied chance, vig removed

Tale of the tape

The facts, side by side — Austin Bashi vs Carlos Calderon.

Red corner AustinBashiWarrior Way Martial Arts · Hometown (per Sherdog): West Bloomfield Township, Michigan
VSUpcoming
Blue corner CarlosCalderon“Chief”CFC MMA · From Spain
Featherweight3 roundsPicks published · graded in public after the card
The story
  • Carries 63 points more takedown defence than Calderon.
  • Lands 3.0 more significant strikes a minute than Bashi.
14-2
Record
6-3
−5 yr25
Age
30
5' 6"
Height
+5″5' 11"
70″
Reach
+1″71″
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Warrior Way Martial Arts
Gym
CFC MMA
West Bloomfield Township, Michiganhometown, per Sherdog
From
Spain
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s.
All the vitals, as a table
UFC 1-2UFC record—
14-2Pro record6-3
—NicknameChief
5' 6"Height5' 11"
70"Reach71"
OrthodoxStanceSouthpaw
25Age30
145 lbs.Weight145 lbs.
United StatesNationalitySpain
West Bloomfield Township, MichiganHometown (per Sherdog)—
Warrior Way Martial ArtsCampCFC MMA
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

Austin BashiCarlos Calderon
36
Striking
66
61
Defence
14
71
Grappling / TD
61
42
Cardio
n/a
50 limited sample
Chin
n/a
52
FightIQ Rating
47
Our read — derived, not official stats. Ranked within weight class.

Strike zones

Strike zones

Austin Bashi

Where the strikes go — and where they land on him. Career UFC totals, straight off the tape.

HEAD64.9%ACC 32%BODY28.1%ACC 76%LEGS7.0%FIELD 17%
FightIQ read Balanced attack 65% head / 28% body / 7% legs — no single target dominates.
Share by zonevs field average
HEAD
64.9% acc 32%+1.7 vs field
BODY
28.1% acc 76%+8.0 vs field
LEGS
7.0%−9.6 vs field
Where the offence happens
DISTANCE 79%CLINCH 16%GROUND 5%

Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.

3 UFC fights · 57 landed

Takedowns

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Austin Bashi

6.09takedowns / 15 min
6.09 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
3.93 / 15m
17.40 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
11.91 / 15m
35%
ACCURACY
33%
1.40 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.00 / 15m

Carlos Calderon

3.93takedowns / 15 min

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.09 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked in Featherweight

Stats comparison

Austin Bashi (left) vs Carlos Calderon (right) — career striking & grappling rates.

Strikes landed / min
1.89
vs
4.85
Striking accuracy
42%
vs
42%
Strikes absorbed / min
2.34
vs
4.98
Striking defence
52%
vs
33%
Takedowns / 15 min
6.09
vs
3.93
Takedown accuracy
35%
vs
33%
Takedown defence
63%
vs
0%
Sub attempts / 15 min
1.4
vs
0
Career averages from public UFC statistics.

Bios

Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.

Austin BashiFightIQ profileWrestler

5' 6" orthodox wrestler campaigning at Featherweight. 1 UFC win — 1 submission.

Built from Austin Bashi’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →
Carlos CalderonFightIQ profileGrappling-led all-rounder

5' 11" southpaw grappling-led all-rounder campaigning at Featherweight.

Built from Carlos Calderon’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →

Go deeper

Austin Bashi’s fighter page →Carlos Calderon’s fighter page →Try Austin Bashi against anyone else →The full Cortes Acosta vs Walker card →Featherweight rankings →What normal looks like at Featherweight →Every current pick →

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